7 Essential On-Chain Metrics Driving Bitcoin & Ethereum Rally: October 9, 2025 Insights
Enhanced Crypto Market On-Chain Analysis: October 9, 2025Blending the granular on-chain depth from my prior snapshot (e.g., MVRV, SOPR, netflows) with the fresh technical/macro insights from X analysts and recent web reports, this updated analysis captures a market in resilient uptrend mode. Total market cap sits at $4.25T (+1.5% 24h), with Bitcoin dominance at 59.1%—a “knife-edge” level where a break above 60% could squeeze alts further, while sub-58.5% sparks rotation. Fear & Greed holds neutral-bullish at 62, amid $1.2B record ETF inflows on Oct 6 and $4.61B weekly for spot BTC ETFs overtaking ETH for the first time in weeks. Ethereum’s ETF flows have surged past 10% of supply, fueling staking and L2 hype, but both assets show choppy consolidation post-ATH tests: BTC rejected $124.7K, ETH stalled at $4,600. On-chain signals affirm accumulation (declining exchange reserves, rising mid-tier holder stacks), tempered by overbought RSI (64 for BTC, 49 neutral for ETH) and cooling open interest hinting at profit-taking. Macro tailwinds like gold’s $4,000 ATH and upcoming CPI (Oct 15) support “Uptober” extension, but leverage risks loom for 3-7% dips.Bitcoin On-Chain & Technical HighlightsBTC trades at $123,200 (+1.2% 24h), defending the 4H EMA50 after a -2.2% pullback from $124.7K ATH. Institutional ETF stacking ($4.61B net inflows, BlackRock AUM at $96.2B) dominates spot demand, with mid-tier holders (1-10 BTC) absorbing ~30K BTC in $121K-$122K clusters. Exchange netflows remain negative, signaling self-custody shifts, while hashrate stability post-halving underscores network resilience. TA confirms bullish MACD crossover and ascending triangle (support $119.5K VAH/OB zone), but CRSI overbought and volume taper suggest short-term hesitation. https://studio.glassnode.com/dashboards/btc-onchain-activity Metric Value (as of Oct 9) 24h/Weekly Change Insight Price $123,200 +1.2% (24h) Consolidating in ascending triangle; key support $119.5K (VAH + VWAP + POC), resistance $124.7K-$125K. Active Addresses (24h) ~1.1M +2% (weekly) Steady network health; no cooldown despite volatility. Transaction Volume $240B (spot est.) +15% (24h) Surge reflects repositioning; ETF-driven over speculation. Exchange Netflow -$12M/day (avg.) Outflows up 20% Declining reserves bullish; whales derisking via self-custody. MVRV Z-Score ~2.6 (neutral-rising) +0.1 Room for upside; not yet euphoric (threshold ~7). SOPR 1.02 (low profit-taking) Stable Minimal distribution; aligns with intact rally. Miner Reserves ~1.79M BTC -0.1% (weekly) Flat, no selling pressure; hashrate at ATH levels. ETF Inflows (Spot) $4.61B (weekly) Record high Institutional FOMO; $1.2B single-day peak Oct 6. Open Interest Cooling mildly -3% (24h) Hesitation post-rally; long/short ratio 0.71 (contrarian buy). RSI (1D) 64.6 Neutral-bullish Overbought edge; watch for divergence. Key Trends & Signals: Bullish: Mid-tier accumulation score ~0.75 (up from 0.71), LTH distribution easing; dominance basing 58-60% favors BTC lead without full alt bleed. Bearish Risks: Profit-taking via declining OI/volume; $125K liquidation walls could cascade if rejected. VDD at 0.92 (mid-range) flags mild capitulation potential. Outlook: Break $125K targets $130K-$140K; hold $119.5K for continuation. Powell speech/jobs data today could catalyze. Ethereum On-Chain & Technical HighlightsETH at $4,510 (+1.4% 24h), bouncing from $4,450 double-bottom support amid ETF surge (net +$420M daily, total inflows >10% supply). Staking hits 28.5% (deposits +0.7% weekly, e.g., Grayscale’s 32K ETH lockup), slashing exchange float and boosting ~4.3% APY yields. L2s (Base, Arbitrum) drive 92% tx volume, with fees paradoxically low despite ATH usage—scalability win. Futures net-long (55-70% on majors), but sideways grind tests $4,600 resistance; ETH/BTC holds August breakout (0.036 support). Metric Value (as of Oct 9) 24h/Weekly Change Insight Price $4,510 +1.4% (24h) Sideways post-drop; double-bottom reversal, support $4,450, resistance $4,600-$4,748. Active Addresses (Daily) ~595K +1% (from 589K) Elevated vs. yearly avg.; monthly uniques near peaks. Transaction Count ~1.25M (est.) +12% (weekly) L2 boom (90%+ volume); EIP-4484 upgrade hype. Gas Used ATH throughput Stable Fees down 15% despite surge—adoption bullish. Exchange Netflow -55K ETH/day Outflows +25% Staking/self-custody lockup; reduces sell pressure. Staking Ratio ~28.5% of supply +0.7% (weekly) Deposits accelerating; enhances security/yields. DeFi TVL ~$175B +6% (weekly) Restaking/L2 growth (e.g., Mantle integrations); stablecoin +14%. ETF Inflows (Spot) Surge >10% supply +$420M (daily) Institutional demand flips script; overtakes prior weeks. Open Interest High, net-long +2% (24h) 55-70% long bias; funding neutral, profit-taking fade. RSI (1D) 49 Neutral Sideways setup; golden cross intact for $5K path. Key Trends & Signals: Bullish: 92% Polymarket odds for $5K EOY; realized profits rising sans peaks, L2 catalysts (e.g., Base USDC streaming). ETH/BTC >0.039 flips alt tailwind. Bearish Risks: Overbought signals on 1H, node centralization (OFAC risks); thin alt breadth if dominance spikes. Outlook: Upside to $4,748-$5.2K on breakout; $4,450 hold key. Softer CPI tomorrow could ignite to $5K+. For more news and Analysis keep in touch with https://www.botslash.com/
