Bitcoin has recently faced challenges in maintaining its correlation with gold, typically experiencing price declines during bearish market phases. However, when Bitcoin’s price is compared to gold rather than the US dollar, a clearer picture of the current market cycle emerges. This comparison helps estimate Bitcoin’s real purchasing power and identify potential support levels, indicating that the bear market is approaching its conclusion. The drop below the 350-day moving average and the psychological $100,000 mark signaled entry into a bear market, followed by an approximate 20% price decline. Historically, Bitcoin falling below the golden ratio multiplier has indicated bear markets, with this analysis proving more insightful against gold. When measured against gold, Bitcoin peaked in December 2024 before dropping over 50%, whereas its peak against the US dollar occurred in October 2025 at a lower level than the previous year, suggesting the bear market has been ongoing longer than commonly perceived. Past bear market cycles have seen significant and prolonged price declines, and Fibonacci retracement levels confirm Bitcoin is likely in the final stages of this bear market. Historically, price lows have aligned with key Fibonacci levels, a pattern repeating in the current cycle. Translating these levels into US dollar terms suggests Bitcoin could stabilize between $67,000 and $80,000, a zone considered suitable for buying and indicative of a market bottom. Current analysis implies that approximately 90% of the bear market is complete, with price stabilization and potential increases expected soon. Nonetheless, careful research and continuous market monitoring remain essential before making investment decisions.
Source: bitcoinmagazine
