Bitcoin Faces Continued Downtrend with Signs of Short-Term Stability – Market Analysis – 2026-02-16

Market Analysis

Recent days have seen significant turbulence and uncertainty in the Bitcoin market. Price movements and technical indicators have prompted investors to exercise caution, leading to a variety of perspectives on the market’s future direction.

From a long-term standpoint, Bitcoin is clearly entrenched in an extended downtrend that has persisted for over a year. Over the past 365 days, the price has declined by approximately 29%, with an Average True Range (ATR) near 7%, reflecting sustained market volatility. Similar bearish trends are evident in the shorter 90-day and 30-day periods, indicating ongoing downward pressure. The Hull Moving Averages (HMA) for 50, 100, and 200 days all point downward, with the current price trading below the 50-day HMA, reinforcing the bearish outlook for both the long and medium term.

In the medium term (30 days), Bitcoin has experienced a decline of around 27.66%, with the 50-day HMA sloping downward, confirming the downward momentum. However, in the short term (7 days), there are signs of some stabilization and range-bound movement. The 7-day RSI and 14-day Money Flow Index (MFI) oscillate between 27 and 43, indicating neither extreme oversold nor overbought conditions, but rather a mild weakness.

Intraday and shorter timeframe charts (1-hour and 4-hour) show the RSI hovering between 40 and 44 with a slight downward slope, suggesting some short-term selling pressure. Prices remain below the midline of the Bollinger Bands, positioned around 0.3, which points to moderate weakness. However, there is no significant contraction or expansion in the bands that would signal an imminent sharp move.

Looking at key daily levels, the overbought threshold indicated by RSI and Bollinger Bands is near 58,000, while the oversold level is around 88,000. The current price, hovering near 68,800, is approximately 17% above the oversold level and 22% below the overbought threshold, placing it closer to oversold territory. This suggests that while further downside is possible, a rebound becomes increasingly likely once oversold conditions are reached.

Support levels are identified in the range between 66,000 and 65,000, extending down toward 60,000. If the initial support fails, the price may find some stability at the next support zone. Resistance is concentrated between 69,000 and 70,000, currently capping the price in the short term. The price is near resistance but lacks conviction; a break above these levels could open the door for modest gains.

Market sentiment remains bearish. The negative funding rate signals downward pressure, while open interest has declined by approximately 1.8%, indicating reduced market participation and liquidity. The Fear and Greed Index is in the extreme fear zone (ranging between 5 and 11), often seen as a buying opportunity for large investors, since heightened fear typically coincides with price dips. Recent news over the past five days also supports the bearish mood, highlighting ongoing global economic uncertainty and regulatory concerns.

In summary, Bitcoin’s market continues its prolonged downtrend, though short-term stabilization and potential rebounds are evident. The current price level near support, coupled with technical indicators approaching oversold zones, suggests that a positive reaction could follow further declines. Nonetheless, the dominant trend over medium and long terms remains bearish. Investors are advised to remain cautious, viewing any short-term upward moves as temporary. Ultimately, the market’s next significant direction will depend on a clear breakout from current support or resistance levels. Maintaining a cautious stance is the prudent strategy at present.

Data Summary

• 1. Time:
  2026-02-16 – 00:00 UTC
• 2. Prices:
  Open: 69822.94000000
  High: 70983.00000000
  Low: 68000.00000000
  Close: 68832.58000000
• 8. Supports:
  S1: 67969.65000000 – 66034.50000000
  S2: 65376.00000000 – 64800.01000000
  S3: 60864.99000000 – 60459.90000000
  S4: 57541.1 – 56018
• 9. Resistances:
  R1: 69031.99000000 – 69610.00000000
  R2: 71446.62000000 – 71758.00000000
  R3: 78738.6 – 79424
• 10. Psychological Support:
  60000.00000000
• 11. Psychological Resistance:
  70000.00000000
• 3. Last 5 days’ closing prices:
  2026-02-11: 67082.52000000
  2026-02-12: 66272.17000000
  2026-02-13: 68853.96000000
  2026-02-14: 69822.95000000
  2026-02-15: 68832.58000000
• 4. Volume:
  BTC: 22290.0521
  USD: $1545094572.1368
• 5. Number of trades:
  4598633
• 6. Indicators:
  RSI: 40.4200
  MFI: 43.9100
  BB Upper: 90739.52000000
  BB Lower: 58988.58000000
• 7. Moving Averages:
  SMA:
  7=68549.07000000
  14=70044.86000000
  21=74864.05000000
  30=79551.17000000
  50=84317.99000000
  100=87734.29000000
  200=100579.15000000

  EMA:

  7=69094.50000000
  14=71437.53000000
  21=74127.76000000
  30=76939.23000000
  50=81196.24000000
  100=87837.95000000
  200=93962.06000000

  HMA:

  7=69623.67000000
  14=67864.76000000
  21=65542.56000000
  30=63871.65000000
  50=67164.57000000
  100=77989.82000000
  200=77875.16000000
• 12. Funding Rate:
  -0.0024% (Technically Positive)
• 13. Open Interest:
  77778.2390
• 14. Fear & Greed Index:
  8 (Extreme Fear)

Disclaimer: This market analysis is generated by AI based on historical BTC data and sentiment indicators. Use it as a reference, not financial advice.