Bitcoin Shows Signs of Cautious Weakness Amid Growing Market Uncertainty – In-Depth Analysis – 2025-11-09

Market Analysis

Bitcoin has struggled to demonstrate sustained strength in recent days, despite the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. This divergence has contributed to an atmosphere of uncertainty within the market. Given the current conditions, investors are advised to exercise heightened caution as price volatility may intensify in the near term.

A review of the past five days reveals clear signs of weakness following Bitcoin’s recent peak near 124,000. On November 4th, the price opened at 106,583 but closed significantly lower at 101,497, indicating strong downward pressure. The 7-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 21.9, approaching oversold territory—a bearish signal in the short term. Similarly, the 14-day Money Flow Index (MFI) stood at 41.19, trending downward and signaling diminished buying momentum. Trading volume and the number of trades were elevated that day, suggesting active market participation despite the bearish sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index registered a low value of 21, reflecting a fearful market environment and cautious investor behavior.

On November 5th, the price showed a modest recovery, closing at 103,885 after opening at 101,497. The RSI increased to 33.82, indicating a somewhat neutral stance with weak buying interest. The MFI remained subdued at 40.7, signaling tentative but slightly improved buying activity. Trading volume and transactions decreased, pointing to reduced market enthusiasm. Although the Fear and Greed Index edged slightly higher, fear continued to dominate. Moving averages (specifically the Hull Moving Averages or HMA) displayed some alignment with the price movement; however, declines in the 7- and 14-day HMAs suggested persistent short-term selling pressure.

Between November 6th and 8th, Bitcoin’s price fluctuated within a range, hovering around 104,200 before dropping to approximately 102,312. Both RSI and MFI indicators stayed between 30 and 38, reflecting weak but stable downward momentum. According to Bollinger Bands, prices largely remained near the middle band, occasionally touching the lower band, indicating ongoing selling pressure and subdued buying interest. The Fear and Greed Index fluctuated between 20 and 27, continuing to signal a cautious, fearful market. Short-term HMAs showed slight improvement, but the 21- and 30-day HMAs continued to decline, pointing to sustained mid-term weakness.

Regarding key support and resistance levels, the support zone between 101,508 and 99,950 is critical, lying close to current price levels. A breakdown below this range could expose the next support zone between 96,945 and 90,056. On the resistance side, the 103,261 to 104,550 range marks the first major hurdle, which appears difficult to surpass at present. Beyond this, resistance between 106,066 and 106,660 represents the next significant barrier. Psychological levels at 100,000 (support) and 110,000 (resistance) remain important, especially in a market dominated by fear. Despite the Fed’s rate cut, the lack of strong upward momentum and subdued volume highlight prevailing short-term bearish pressure, although mid- and long-term trends remain less certain.

In summary, the current outlook for Bitcoin calls for prudence as signs of fear and weakness persist. Short-term indicators and declining volume point toward bearish tendencies, yet mid-term moving averages and key support areas may help prevent a sharp decline. The absence of strong buying interest despite easing monetary policy suggests that investors remain cautious amid unresolved uncertainty. Therefore, a measured approach is advisable, with investors encouraged to await clearer market signals before making significant moves.

Data Summary

• 1. Time:
  2025-11-09 – 00:00 UTC
• 2. Prices:
  Open: 103339.09000000
  High: 103406.22000000
  Low: 101454.00000000
  Close: 102312.94000000
• 8. Supports:
  S1: 101508.68000000 – 99950.77000000
  S2: 96945.63000000 – 90056.17000000
  S3: 89855.99000000 – 87325.59000000
  S4: 84474.7 – 83949.5
• 9. Resistances:
  R1: 103261.60000000 – 104550.33000000
  R2: 106066.59000000 – 106660.00000000
  R3: 111696.21000000 – 112371.00000000
  R4: 116789 – 117544
• 10. Psychological Support:
  100000.00000000
• 11. Psychological Resistance:
  110000.00000000
• 3. Last 5 days’ closing prices:
  2025-11-04: 101497.22000000
  2025-11-05: 103885.16000000
  2025-11-06: 101346.04000000
  2025-11-07: 103339.08000000
  2025-11-08: 102312.94000000
• 4. Volume:
  BTC: 12390.7799
  USD: $1267165565.3753
• 5. Number of trades:
  2743819
• 6. Indicators:
  RSI: 34.8800
  MFI: 38.0000
  BB Upper: 116126.18000000
  BB Lower: 100720.42000000
• 7. Moving Averages:
  SMA:
  7=104214.88000000
  14=107794.28000000
  21=108423.30000000
  30=109201.18000000
  50=112269.63000000
  100=113271.00000000
  200=109281.90000000

  EMA:

  7=104172.52000000
  14=106307.60000000
  21=107735.10000000
  30=109013.59000000
  50=110609.20000000
  100=111193.40000000
  200=107610.47000000

  HMA:

  7=101821.55000000
  14=101081.58000000
  21=102486.24000000
  30=105336.47000000
  50=105805.29000000
  100=110225.67000000
  200=113688.74000000
• 12. Funding Rate:
  0.0037% (Technically Positive)
• 13. Open Interest:
  86828.8890
• 14. Fear & Greed Index:
  20 (Extreme Fear)

Disclaimer: This market analysis is generated by AI based on historical BTC data and sentiment indicators. Use it as a reference, not financial advice.