Bitcoin Faces Downward Pressure: Why Cautious Investment Strategies Are Essential – 2025-11-04

Market Analysis

Bitcoin recently reached a peak near 124,000 but has since shown a consistent decline in value. Despite the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, the market lacks the momentum needed to push prices to new highs. Given this environment, investors should exercise considerable caution.

Over the past five days, Bitcoin’s price has experienced fluctuations with an overall weakening trend. On October 30, the price opened at 110,021 and closed lower at 108,322, indicating initial selling pressure. The RSI (7) stood at 36.4, well below the neutral 50 mark and trending downward, signaling a bearish and weakened market sentiment. The MFI (14) was at 55.27, remaining in a neutral zone but without significant bullish momentum. The Fear and Greed Index hovered near 34, reflecting cautious sentiment leaning toward fear, though not at extreme levels. Trading volumes were moderate overall, with a noticeable increase on October 30, suggesting early selling activity.

Between October 31 and November 2, prices saw a modest recovery, climbing from 108,322 to 110,540. Both RSI and MFI remained stable between 40 and 48, indicating a slight strengthening from a neutral stance. The Fear and Greed Index showed a small rise from 29 to 37. During this period, Bollinger Bands kept the price close to the middle band, implying limited volatility and no imminent breakout. Moving averages, particularly the 7- and 14-day Hull Moving Averages (HMA), reflected a relatively stable market, though the 21- and 30-day HMAs stayed above current prices, hinting at mid-term downward pressure.

On November 3, Bitcoin’s price dropped sharply, closing at 106,583 after falling below 110,540. The RSI fell further to 32.63, confirming increased weakness, while the MFI remained neutral at 56.33. Trading volume rose, indicating intensified selling pressure. Although the Fear and Greed Index improved slightly to 42, caution remains warranted. The price approached the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting short-term support; however, if this level breaks, subsequent support zones are likely between 105,681 and 104,872, and then 101,508 to 99,950—key levels to watch for protecting the downside. Resistance is expected between 108,816 and 109,450, representing the main barrier to price recovery in the near term.

Overall, despite the Fed’s rate reductions, Bitcoin has not displayed the anticipated upward surge. The moderate Fear and Greed Index combined with the weakening RSI reflects investor caution. Technical indicators such as moving averages and Bollinger Bands suggest ongoing mid-term pressure, with further declines possible if support levels fail. Conversely, breaching resistance could lead to short-term improvement, but the predominant market sentiment remains bearish and uncertain. Investors are advised to carefully monitor market developments and avoid impulsive decisions, especially as signs of declining volume and open interest suggest a lack of strong conviction in the current trend.

Data Summary

• 1. Time:
  2025-11-04 – 00:00 UTC
• 2. Prices:
  Open: 110540.69000000
  High: 110750.00000000
  Low: 105306.56000000
  Close: 106583.04000000
• 8. Supports:
  S1: 105681.14000000 – 104872.50000000
  S2: 101508.68000000 – 99950.77000000
  S3: 96945.63000000 – 90056.17000000
  S4: 87325.6 – 86310
• 9. Resistances:
  R1: 108816.33000000 – 109450.07000000
  R2: 111696.21000000 – 112371.00000000
  R3: 116788.96000000 – 117543.75000000
  R4: 123306 – 124197
• 10. Psychological Support:
  100000.00000000
• 11. Psychological Resistance:
  110000.00000000
• 3. Last 5 days’ closing prices:
  2025-10-30: 108322.88000000
  2025-10-31: 109608.01000000
  2025-11-01: 110098.10000000
  2025-11-02: 110540.68000000
  2025-11-03: 106583.04000000
• 4. Volume:
  BTC: 28681.1878
  USD: $3076006652.0016
• 5. Number of trades:
  7074546
• 6. Indicators:
  RSI: 32.6300
  MFI: 56.3300
  BB Upper: 114568.97000000
  BB Lower: 105441.62000000
• 7. Moving Averages:
  SMA:
  7=109724.64000000
  14=110381.00000000
  21=110005.30000000
  30=112603.24000000
  50=113640.58000000
  100=114067.66000000
  200=108826.51000000

  EMA:

  7=109484.53000000
  14=110284.82000000
  21=110934.43000000
  30=111595.71000000
  50=112408.31000000
  100=112109.79000000
  200=107873.61000000

  HMA:

  7=108642.74000000
  14=108913.64000000
  21=110555.84000000
  30=110021.57000000
  50=108535.75000000
  100=112410.74000000
  200=115005.40000000
• 12. Funding Rate:
  0.0053%
• 13. Open Interest:
  76022.2260
• 14. Fear & Greed Index:
  42 (Fear)

Disclaimer: This market analysis is generated by AI based on historical BTC data and sentiment indicators. Use it as a reference, not financial advice.