Bitcoin Surges but Faces Strong Resistance at $124,000 – Strategic Insights and Caution Advised – 2025-10-04

Market Analysis

Bitcoin recently faced strong resistance near the 124,000 level, and despite the Federal Reserve’s reduction in interest rates, the market has not exhibited a clear breakout. Given the current market uncertainty and the technical indicators, adopting a cautious stance regarding price direction is advisable.

Over the past five days, Bitcoin has experienced significant upward momentum, rising from 109,635 to reach a high of 123,894. The 7-day RSI climbed from 48.48 to 79.67, initially indicating moderate strength before moving into overbought territory. Similarly, the 14-day Money Flow Index increased from 26.05 to 52.89, reflecting growing cash inflows into the market, though it has yet to enter an overbought zone. Bollinger Bands highlighted notable price volatility, with prices staying near the upper band in recent sessions—suggesting a potential ceiling or possible reversal.

Examining the moving averages reveals that the 7-day Hull Moving Average (HMA) showed bullish momentum at 123,720 on the last day, while the 14, 21, and 30-day HMAs also trend upward, signaling a strong short-to-medium-term trend. The 200-day HMA, positioned around 118,070, continues to act as a crucial long-term support level. Support zones from S1 to S3 appear robust, ranging between 118,686 and 112,380. Should the price fall below 118,686, further support may be found at 117,758 and then 115,188. Psychological support is significant near 120,000, given its proximity to current prices. On the resistance side, the 125,000 mark stands out as a key psychological barrier where the price may face challenges breaking through.

The Fear and Greed Index hovers near 63, indicating a market that is moderately optimistic but not excessively greedy, which reduces the likelihood of short-term whale sell-offs. Open interest has increased by 2.4%, and a positive funding rate of 0.0001 supports ongoing buying pressure. Market sentiment is further bolstered by encouraging news, including major investments from Bitmain and BlackRock, as well as growing interest in ETFs. However, potential risks remain, such as a possible U.S. government shutdown and broader economic uncertainties, which could impede price growth.

Overall, Bitcoin has demonstrated strong bullish momentum in recent days but remains capped by resistance near 124,000. Both technical signals and market sentiment suggest a delicate balance, where further gains or minor corrections are equally plausible. Investors are advised to closely monitor support and resistance levels and avoid hasty decisions amid prevailing uncertainties.

Data Summary

• 1. Time:
  2025-10-04 – 00:00 UTC
• 2. Prices:
  Open: 120529.35000000
  High: 123894.99000000
  Low: 119248.30000000
  Close: 122232.00000000
• 8. Supports:
  S1: 118686.00000000 – 117825.50000000
  S2: 117758.09000000 – 115188.00000000
  S3: 112872.94000000 – 112380.00000000
  S4: 101509 – 99950.8
• 9. Resistances:
  Only Psychological Resistance
• 10. Psychological Support:
  120000.00000000
• 11. Psychological Resistance:
  125000.00000000
• 3. Last 5 days’ closing prices:
  2025-09-28: 112163.95000000
  2025-09-29: 114311.96000000
  2025-10-01: 118594.99000000
  2025-10-02: 120529.35000000
  2025-10-03: 122232.00000000
• 4. Volume:
  BTC: 23936.3280
  USD: $2907381076.6813
• 5. Number of trades:
  4246820
• 6. Indicators:
  RSI: 79.6700
  MFI: 52.8900
  BB Upper: 121514.42000000
  BB Lower: 108341.64000000
• 7. Moving Averages:
  SMA:
  7=115301.65000000
  14=114329.51000000
  21=114928.03000000
  30=114032.16000000
  50=113778.03000000
  100=113446.15000000
  200=104256.18000000

  EMA:

  7=117192.35000000
  14=115490.04000000
  21=114872.99000000
  30=114496.48000000
  50=114016.89000000
  100=111952.75000000
  200=106157.52000000

  HMA:

  7=123720.17000000
  14=117989.86000000
  21=114674.55000000
  30=113788.03000000
  50=114629.83000000
  100=112848.00000000
  200=118069.61000000
• 12. Funding Rate:
  0.01%
• 13. Open Interest:
  93675.4140
• 14. Fear & Greed Index:
  63 (Greed)

Disclaimer: This market analysis is generated by AI based on historical BTC data and sentiment indicators. Use it as a reference, not financial advice.