Bitcoin Approaches $110,000 with Cautious Optimism: Market Analysis and Outlook – 2025-07-04

Market Analysis

Certainly! Here is a polished, professional English version of the given Urdu crypto market introduction and analysis, written naturally without literal translation:

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**Introduction**

Bitcoin recently attempted to break through the 110,000 level but fell short of surpassing the key liquidity cluster around 113,000. This inability has prompted a cautious sentiment to resurface in the market. Today, we will take an in-depth look at this scenario and explore potential price trends based on various influencing factors.

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**Market Analysis**

Over the past five days, Bitcoin’s price has shown notable volatility, fluctuating between roughly 107,000 and 110,000. On June 29, the price opened at 107,296 and closed at 108,356. During this period, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 67.76, indicating strong momentum that was still comfortably below overbought territory. The Money Flow Index (MFI) hovered near 47.22, signifying a neutral stance with moderate liquidity conditions. Trading volume saw a slight uptick, with over 1.2 million trades executed, signaling moderate market engagement. The Fear and Greed Index registered 68, reflecting mild greed in the market, yet the price still made a concerted effort to approach the 110,000 mark.

However, on June 30 and July 1, the price retreated, with RSI falling to 45.7 and MFI ranging between 40.76 and 42.32. These readings suggest increasing market pressure and weakening momentum. Despite rising volume, the price decline points toward possible profit-taking or short-term selling pressure. Correspondingly, the Fear and Greed Index showed a slight dip, illustrating a cautious market mood.

On July 2, Bitcoin staged a sudden recovery, climbing back to 109,730. RSI rose to 63.33 and MFI reached 50.77, indicating renewed bullish interest. Trading volumes also increased significantly, reinforcing the strength of buying activity. The following day, July 3, the price reached a high of 110,529 before closing at 109,584. RSI remained robust at 66.29, and MFI edged higher to 56.06, pointing to a positive yet measured upward trend.

Looking at Bollinger Bands, on July 3 the price closed near the upper band—a typically bullish signal—while also finding support around a low of 108,530, highlighting a strong support zone. The move toward the upper band indicates heightened volatility, and a sustained close above this band could signal further upward momentum. Nonetheless, since the 113,000 liquidity cluster remains unbroken, this bullish trend cannot yet be considered fully confirmed.

Turning to moving averages, particularly the Hull Moving Average (HMA), values ranged between 108,407 and 108,783 on July 2 and 3, with the price closing above these levels, further supporting a positive outlook. Still, the failure to decisively breach the critical resistance at 110,000 tempers enthusiasm and suggests the trend has yet to solidify fully.

Key support levels are currently identified as follows: S1 between 107,318 and 106,356; S2 between 105,681 and 104,872; and S3 between 101,508 and 99,950. Should price fall below S1, the next strong support would be S2, with S3 serving as an additional critical floor. On the resistance side, the range between 110,274 and 110,797—coupled with the psychological barrier at 110,000—continues to cap upward movement.

From a fundamental perspective, retail demand for Bitcoin has softened, while institutional investor interest appears to be rising, creating mixed signals within the market. Concerns over the weakening US dollar, voiced by former President Trump, alongside indications of potential rate cuts, have introduced a note of caution among investors. Additionally, the recent approval of a major US budget bill by the Senate, combined with the absence of tax reforms targeting cryptocurrencies, has contributed to market uncertainty. The Fear and Greed Index has oscillated between 63 and 73, reflecting a blend of moderate greed and prudence. Furthermore, a modest uptick in the funding rate and a 9.4% increase in open interest underscore sustained investor engagement, though these trends remain inconclusive for the short term.

Overall, Bitcoin’s price stands at a critical juncture. A stable close above 110,000 could reinforce the bullish momentum, while the failure to overcome the 113,000 liquidity cluster signals underlying market pressure and a risk of correction. Current support levels appear robust enough to prevent a sharp decline, but investors should remain vigilant given the impact of global political and economic developments—especially US monetary policy and trade negotiations—on price dynamics.

The market’s Fear and Greed Index and volume metrics together suggest a cautious yet optimistic investor sentiment, which could translate into short-term price fluctuations. Accordingly, Bitcoin is expected to trade within a range of approximately 103,000 to 110,000 over the coming days. Should the 110,000 threshold be decisively breached, further upward movement is likely.

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Data Summary

• 1. Time:
  2025-07-04 – 00:00 UTC
• 2. Prices:
  Open: 108849.59000000
  High: 110529.18000000
  Low: 108530.40000000
  Close: 109584.78000000
• 3. Last 5 days’ closing prices:
  2025-06-29: 108356.93000000
  2025-06-30: 107146.50000000
  2025-07-01: 105681.14000000
  2025-07-02: 108849.60000000
  2025-07-03: 109584.78000000
• 4. Volume:
  BTC: 13047.0823
  USD: $1429459048.6383
• 5. Number of trades:
  2568944
• 6. Indicators:
  RSI: 66.2900
  MFI: 56.0600
  BB Upper: 109992.14000000
  BB Lower: 101818.91000000
  MACD: 836.19000000
  Signal: 492.82000000
  Histogram: 343.37000000
• 7. Moving Averages:
  SMA:
  7=107709.05000000
  14=106146.41000000
  21=105905.53000000
  30=106021.68000000
  50=106250.14000000
  100=98102.80000000
  200=96349.41000000

  EMA:

  7=107763.70000000
  14=106963.69000000
  21=106552.22000000
  30=106066.88000000
  50=104558.02000000
  100=100775.23000000
  200=94788.11000000

  HMA:

  7=108783.35000000
  14=108407.11000000
  21=108480.83000000
  30=107009.81000000
  50=106034.13000000
  100=109502.38000000
  200=107154.47000000
• 8. Supports:
  S1: 107318.30000000 – 106356.76000000
  S2: 105681.14000000 – 104872.50000000
  S3: 101508.68000000 – 99950.77000000
  S4: 94536.1 – 87325.6
• 9. Resistances:
  R1: 110274.39000000 – 110797.38000000
• 10. Psychological Support:
  100000.00000000
• 11. Psychological Resistance:
  110000.00000000
• 12. Funding Rate:
  0.005%
• 13. Open Interest:
  81361.3310
• 14. Fear & Greed Index:
  73 (Greed)

Disclaimer: This market analysis is generated by AI based on historical BTC data and sentiment indicators. Use it as a reference, not financial advice.