Signs of Softening in Bitcoin Prices as Market Enters a Cautious Phase – In-Depth Analysis – 2025-06-22

Market Analysis

Certainly! Here is a polished, professional English version of the provided Urdu introduction and analysis on the Bitcoin market, written naturally without literal translation:

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**Introduction**
Bitcoin’s price has experienced significant volatility in recent days, influenced by a combination of key global and local factors. In today’s analysis, we will delve into these price movements, examining how technical indicators and the latest news developments have impacted Bitcoin’s market behavior.

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**Market Analysis**
Recently, Bitcoin attempted to break above the upper boundary of its sideways trading range between 85,000 and 110,000; however, it encountered resistance near the liquidity cluster around 113,000 and was unable to sustain gains beyond this level. A review of the past five days reveals a clear shift from neutral to bearish momentum, particularly evident on June 21, when the price dropped to 102,120—signaling weakening strength compared to previous sessions.

The RSI with a 7-day period has fallen to 29.25, approaching oversold territory and indicating short-term bearish pressure. Similarly, the MFI over 14 days stands at 38.47, reflecting diminished buying interest in the market. The MACD value has turned sharply negative at -209.2, marking a bearish crossover that suggests increased selling activity among short-term traders.

Trading volume also declined, with June 21 registering 11,154 transactions, signaling reduced market engagement. The number of trades hovered around 2.17 million, lower than previous days, further indicating waning activity and supporting the bearish trend. Bollinger Bands show prices nearing the lower band, which points to heightened selling pressure and a potential approach toward a support zone. However, if these support levels give way, prices could face further downward risk.

Looking at moving averages, the Hull Moving Average (HMA) for 7 days on June 21 was close to 102,410, slightly above the closing price of 102,120, highlighting a weak short-term trend. Both the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) values are declining, confirming bearish momentum in the mid-term outlook.

In terms of support, Bitcoin may find floor levels between 101,508 and 99,950. Should this range break, the next significant support lies between 96,945 and 90,056. Resistance is currently positioned between 104,103 and 105,500, capping upward movement and preventing further price advances. The psychological support level at 100,000 remains critical; a breach below this could deepen the mid-term bearish scenario.

The Fear and Greed Index currently sits at 49, indicating a slightly cautious market sentiment that leans toward fear. Investors appear hesitant to make bold moves amid uncertainty. Funding rates remain positive but marginal (0.000074), while open interest has declined by 0.37%, signaling mild market weakness.

On the news front, Bitcoin’s price has shown resilience despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, even as other crypto assets faced downward pressure. Legislative developments such as Brazil’s Bitcoin Reserve Bill and the GENIUS Act are expected to have positive long-term effects on the market. Nonetheless, technical and sentiment indicators are currently constraining price movements.

In summary, Bitcoin’s price is heading toward a crucial mid-term support zone, with technical signals predominantly bearish. However, there are no strong indications of either a sharp decline or a decisive rally at this stage. If the 101,508 to 99,950 support range holds, we may witness some corrective upward movements. Conversely, failure to maintain these levels could lead to increased downside pressure. On the upside, overcoming resistance between 104,103 and 105,500 would require substantial buying momentum, which currently appears lacking. Given these conditions, the market remains balanced, and investors should exercise caution, as both bullish and bearish scenarios remain plausible.

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Data Summary

• 1. Time:
  2025-06-22 – 00:00 UTC
• 2. Prices:
  Open: 103297.98000000
  High: 103982.64000000
  Low: 100837.90000000
  Close: 102120.01000000
• 3. Last 5 days’ closing prices:
  2025-06-17: 104551.17000000
  2025-06-18: 104886.78000000
  2025-06-19: 104658.59000000
  2025-06-20: 103297.99000000
  2025-06-21: 102120.01000000
• 4. Volume:
  BTC: 11154.2133
  USD: $1144829784.7306
• 5. Number of trades:
  2172578
• 6. Indicators:
  RSI: 29.2500
  MFI: 38.4700
  BB Upper: 109794.41000000
  BB Lower: 101338.59000000
  MACD: -209.20000000
  Signal: 424.44000000
  Histogram: -633.64000000
• 7. Moving Averages:
  SMA:
  7=104557.58000000
  14=105998.04000000
  21=105566.50000000
  30=106043.43000000
  50=104723.43000000
  100=95472.42000000
  200=95938.87000000

  EMA:

  7=104200.01000000
  14=105008.00000000
  21=105192.62000000
  30=104854.55000000
  50=103099.31000000
  100=99134.48000000
  200=93260.19000000

  HMA:

  7=102410.10000000
  14=103413.11000000
  21=104241.68000000
  30=105455.81000000
  50=105859.25000000
  100=111282.42000000
  200=103645.54000000
• 8. Supports:
  S1: 101508.68000000 – 99950.77000000
  S2: 96945.63000000 – 90056.17000000
  S3: 89855.99000000 – 87325.59000000
  S4: 84474.7 – 83949.5
• 9. Resistances:
  R1: 104103.72000000 – 105500.00000000
  R2: 105857.99000000 – 106457.44000000
  R3: 109434.79000000 – 110797.38000000
• 10. Psychological Support:
  100000.00000000
• 11. Psychological Resistance:
  110000.00000000
• 12. Funding Rate:
  0.0074%
• 13. Open Interest:
  77505.7060
• 14. Fear & Greed Index:
  49 (Neutral)

Disclaimer: This market analysis is generated by AI based on historical BTC data and sentiment indicators. Use it as a reference, not financial advice.