Bitcoin Approaches Critical Price Levels: Anticipating the Next Major Move – 2025-06-04

Market Analysis

Over the past five days, Bitcoin’s price has traded within a relatively narrow range, reflecting a sideways consolidation between approximately $85,000 and $110,000 on a long-term scale. Notably, after briefly surpassing the $111,000 level, the price retreated back into this range, signaling a neutral to mildly bullish market stance. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Money Flow Index (MFI) suggest a balanced interplay between buyers and sellers. The RSI values have fluctuated between 35 and 48, indicating weak to neutral momentum, while the MFI has remained constrained between 46 and 53, further underscoring price stability. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also shows a marked decline in bullish momentum, implying that although upward pressure has eased, there is no significant downward force currently at play.

From a Bollinger Bands perspective, Bitcoin’s price has mostly hovered near the middle band, cautiously avoiding touching the upper or lower bands. This behavior confirms the prevailing market uncertainty and low trading volume, reinforcing the sideways price action. Over the past month, volume and trade counts have steadily declined, with a peak volume of approximately 23,706 BTC around May 30, dropping to a range between 9,700 and 13,000 BTC since June 1. This reduction in volume reflects cautious investor sentiment characterized by weak buying or selling activity. Overall, these dynamics suggest that market participants are largely in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting a clear directional cue before committing more aggressively.

Moving averages, particularly the Hull Moving Average (HMA), which provides a refined trend perspective, have exhibited a moderate stance. Between June 2 and June 3, the 7-day HMA edged up slightly from roughly 105,181 to 105,735, indicating marginal short-term price improvement. Meanwhile, the 14-day and 21-day moving averages appear either stable or showing slight weakness, signaling the absence of a strong uptrend in the current environment. Support levels are well-defined, starting near 103,985 and extending downward to 101,420 and 96,945, suggesting solid price floors in case of a pullback. Resistance, on the other hand, is firm between 105,857 and higher thresholds at 110,000 and 113,000. In particular, a significant liquidity cluster around the 113,000 level poses a formidable barrier, as large order volumes could exert downward pressure if the price attempts to break through. Should the price fall below 103,985, the next support could emerge around 101,420. Conversely, a successful breach above 105,857 may pave the way for a test of the 110,000 mark.

Sentiment indicators further complement this cautious picture. The Fear and Greed Index fluctuated between 50 and 64 over the past week, reflecting moderate to slightly elevated greed but stopping short of extreme bullishness. This implies that while some short-term traders or large holders might be engaging in profit-taking, a full-fledged bearish reversal is unlikely at this stage. Funding rates remain near neutral (approximately 0.000045), and open interest has decreased modestly by about 0.97%, indicating a prudent market preparing for potential corrections. Regulatory developments, such as Hong Kong’s new Stablecoin Ordinance and rapid advancements in the European Central Bank’s digital currency initiatives, continue to underpin investor confidence. However, ongoing US trade tensions and rising Treasury yields have injected an element of caution into the market psyche. Taken together, the global financial backdrop and crypto-specific factors have created a delicate equilibrium that constrains Bitcoin within its current trading range.

In summary, the technical and sentiment analysis suggests Bitcoin is firmly entrenched in a sideways phase between roughly 103,985 and 105,857, with strong resistance looming between 110,000 and 113,000. The RSI and MFI remain neutral, and diminished volume has curtailed upward momentum. Moving averages and Bollinger Bands further reinforce a wait-and-watch approach, indicating that short- to medium-term direction remains unclear. The interplay of international economic developments and crypto market dynamics exhibits a mixed influence: some positive catalysts exist, yet global uncertainties and geopolitical tensions are compelling investors to proceed cautiously. Market participants should closely monitor the key support level at 103,985 and resistance near 110,000, as a decisive breakout or breakdown at these points would provide clearer insight into the next directional trend. Overall, Bitcoin currently resides in a neutral to mildly bullish posture, but any substantial move will require either overcoming the liquidity cluster near 113,000 or falling below the critical support at 103,985. Otherwise, this sideways consolidation phase is likely to persist.

Data Summary

• 1. Time:
  2025-06-04 – 00:00 UTC
• 2. Prices:
  Open: 105858.00000000
  High: 106794.67000000
  Low: 104872.50000000
  Close: 105376.89000000
• 3. Last 5 days’ closing prices:
  2025-05-30: 103985.48000000
  2025-05-31: 104591.88000000
  2025-06-01: 105642.93000000
  2025-06-02: 105857.99000000
  2025-06-03: 105376.89000000
• 4. Volume:
  BTC: 13259.5263
  USD: $1402493746.5993
• 5. Number of trades:
  2470698
• 6. Indicators:
  RSI: 44.8700
  MFI: 51.2700
  BB Upper: 111080.74000000
  BB Lower: 101811.10000000
  MACD: 1592.40000000
  Signal: 2463.72000000
  Histogram: -871.32000000
• 7. Moving Averages:
  SMA:
  7=105546.67000000
  14=107330.30000000
  21=106445.92000000
  30=104867.29000000
  50=99439.40000000
  100=91952.24000000
  200=94986.33000000

  EMA:

  7=105841.77000000
  14=105977.20000000
  21=105240.72000000
  30=103774.68000000
  50=100640.11000000
  100=96375.65000000
  200=90840.25000000

  HMA:

  7=105735.08000000
  14=104388.60000000
  21=105479.89000000
  30=107533.59000000
  50=110158.12000000
  100=109637.91000000
  200=96212.68000000
• 8. Supports:
  S1: 103985.48000000 – 103105.09000000
  S2: 101420.00000000 – 100119.04000000
  S3: 96945.63000000 – 90056.17000000
  S4: 87325.6 – 86310
• 9. Resistances:
  R1: 105857.99000000 – 106457.44000000
  R2: 109434.79000000 – 110797.38000000
• 10. Psychological Support:
  100000.00000000
• 11. Psychological Resistance:
  110000.00000000
• 12. Funding Rate:
  0.0045%
• 13. Open Interest:
  82000.8870
• 14. Fear & Greed Index:
  64 (Greed)

Disclaimer: This market analysis is generated by AI based on historical BTC data and sentiment indicators. Use it as a reference, not financial advice.