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Bitcoin Price Forecast Tools and Cycle Valuation Metrics

Bitcoin Magazine Bitcoin Price Forecast Tools and Cycle Valuation Metrics The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Price Forecast Tools chart provides a comprehensive framework for identifying potential price floors during bear cycles and forecasting upside targets based on on-chain fundamentals and network-derived data points. By aggregating multiple metrics, this methodology has historically called Bitcoin market cycle peaks and bottoms with remarkable accuracy. Can these tools continue to provide a basis for reliable BTC price forecasting over the next 12 months and beyond? Table of Contents CVDD & Balanced Price: Bitcoin Price Cycle Low Indicators Top Cap, Delta Top, & Terminal Price: Bitcoin Price Cycle Peak Signals Bitcoin Cycle Master: Aggregated Bitcoin Price Fair Value Framework Projecting Bitcoin Price Forward: 2026 Cycle Scenarios Conclusion: What Bitcoin Price Forecast Tools Are Signaling for 2025–2026 CVDD & Balanced Price: Bitcoin Price Cycle Low Indicators The Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric has historically called Bitcoin price cycle lows almost to perfection across every cycle since Bitcoin’s inception. This metric begins with Coin Days Destroyed, a measure that weights Bitcoin transfers by the duration they were held before movement. For example, holding 1 Bitcoin for 100 days produces 100 coin days destroyed when transferred, while holding 0.1 Bitcoin for the same result requires 1,000 days of holding. Large spikes indicate that the network’s most experienced long-term holders are transferring significant amounts of Bitcoin. Figure 1: The convergence of the CVDD and Balanced Price with BTC price has historically aligned with bear market lows. View Live Chart The CVDD takes this one step further by measuring the USD valuation at the time of transfer rather than just the coin days destroyed quantity alone. This value is then multiplied by 6 million to produce the final metric. When examined across Bitcoin’s entire history, the CVDD has indicated bear market lows with accuracy extending across every cycle. Currently, the CVDD sits at approximately $45,000, though this level trends upward over time as the metric naturally evolves with new transfers and Bitcoin’s price appreciation. The Balanced Price metric complements this downside projection by subtracting the Transferred Price (its calculation methodology is explained later) from the Realized Price, the cost basis or average accumulation price for all bitcoin holders, providing another historically accurate bear cycle low signal.  Top Cap, Delta Top, & Terminal Price: Bitcoin Price Cycle Peak Signals The Top Cap metric begins with the all-time average cap, the cumulative sum of Bitcoin’s market capitalisation divided by the number of days Bitcoin has existed. This all-time weighted moving average is then multiplied by 35 to produce the Top Cap. Historically, this metric has been remarkably accurate for calling bull market peaks, though in recent cycles it has exceeded actual price action, currently projecting to a seemingly unattainable ~$620,000. The Delta Top refines this approach by using the realized cap. The realized cap currently stands at approximately $1.1 trillion. Delta Top is calculated by subtracting the average cap from the realized cap and multiplying by 7. This metric has been accurate historically, though it was slightly off during the 2021 cycle, and it is looking more likely that it will not be reached in the current cycle, currently sitting at approximately $270,000. Figure 2: Delta Top and Terminal Price metrics have frequently aligned with market tops. View Live Chart The Terminal Price metric provides another layer of sophistication. It calculates the Transferred Price, the sum of Coin Days Destroyed divided by the Circulating Bitcoin Supply, and multiplies this by 21 (the maximum Bitcoin supply). This produces a price level based on the fundamental assumption of total network value distributed across all 21 million Bitcoins. Historically, the Terminal Price has been one of the most accurate top-calling tools, marking previous cycle peaks nearly to perfection. This metric currently sits at approximately $290,000, not too far above Delta Top’s current value. Bitcoin Cycle Master: Aggregated Bitcoin Price Fair Value Framework Integrating all these individual metrics into a unified framework produces the Bitcoin Cycle Master chart, which combines these on-chain forecast tools for confluence. This has helped to identify where Bitcoin may be in a cycle, either close to bull or bear market highs, or oscillating around its ‘Fair Market Value’. Figure 3: The Bitcoin Cycle Master currently indicates a Fair Market Value of approximately $106,000. View Live Chart Examining the past two cycles demonstrates the utility of this framework. When Bitcoin trades above the Fair Market Value band, bull markets have historically entered exponential growth phases. When beneath this band, Bitcoin typically signals bear market conditions where defensive positioning and aggressive accumulation become appropriate strategies.  Projecting Bitcoin Price Forward: 2026 Cycle Scenarios By extracting raw data from the price forecast tools and projecting the slope of both the CVDD and Terminal Price forward to the end of 2026, two scenarios emerge. The CVDD, which has moved at a predictable rate of change over the past 90 days, projects to approximately $80,000 by December 31, 2026. This level could represent a potential bear cycle floor, though Bitcoin has already traded beneath this level during recent downward moves, suggesting current prices may already offer compelling value. Figure 4: Extrapolating the CVDD and Terminal Price metrics across 2026 provides a considerable range for potential BTC price action. The Terminal Price, extrapolating its current upward trend, could reach over $500,000 by the end of 2026, though this projection could only be a realistic outcome with a bullish macro environment with significant liquidity injections and broad realization of Bitcoin’s fundamental value proposition.  Conclusion: What Bitcoin Price Forecast Tools Are Signaling for 2025–2026 These Bitcoin price forecast tools, formulated using on-chain fundamental and network-derived data points rather than psychological levels or traditional technical analysis applicable to equities and commodities, have historically provided exceptional accuracy in calling market cycle peaks and bottoms. Forecasting based on their current values suggests a potential bear cycle floor in the $80,000 range by the end of 2026, with upside targets potentially reaching over $500,000, depending on macro conditions and capital flows.  While these

Strive Lines Up $500 Million Stock Offering to Buy More Bitcoin

Bitcoin Magazine Strive Lines Up $500 Million Stock Offering to Buy More Bitcoin Strive, a publicly traded bitcoin treasury and asset-management firm, said it has arranged a $500 million at-the-market offering to help fund more bitcoin purchases. The company plans to sell Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock, known as SATA. The offering allows Strive to issue shares into the market at prevailing prices rather than through a single sale. The structure gives the firm flexibility to raise capital as demand allows. SATA carries a 12% dividend and an effective yield near 13%. The preferred stock is modeled on Strategy’s STRC perpetual preferred equity, which has been used as a funding tool for bitcoin accumulation.  SATA currently trades around $91, below its $100 par value. Strive said proceeds may be used for a range of purposes. These include buying bitcoin, purchasing income-generating assets, supporting working capital, repurchasing common shares, or pursuing acquisitions.  JUST IN: Vivek Ramaswamy’s Strive to raise $500 million to buy more #Bitcoin Nothing stops this train pic.twitter.com/I2ZStdFYBX — Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) December 10, 2025 The company did not specify how much of the raise would be allocated to bitcoin purchases. The 14th-largest corporate bitcoin holder Strive currently holds about 7,525 bitcoin, valued at roughly $695 million at recent market prices. That positions the firm as the 14th-largest publicly traded corporate holder of bitcoin.  The company has leaned into a bitcoin-focused treasury strategy following a public reverse merger earlier this year. The company was co-founded in 2022 by entrepreneur and political figure Vivek Ramaswamy. Since launching its first exchange-traded fund in August 2022, Strive Asset Management has grown to oversee more than $2 billion in assets, according to company disclosures.  The firm markets itself as an alternative asset manager with a focus on aligning capital with long-term investment themes. In September, Strive agreed to acquire Semler Scientific, a transaction that increased the combined entity’s bitcoin exposure. The move placed the company among a growing group of public companies that use equity markets to build large bitcoin positions, a strategy popularized by Michael Saylor’s Strategy. Shares of its common stock, ASST, trade near $1 today. Strive calls out MSCI on bitcoin beliefs  The company has also taken an active role in market structure debates tied to bitcoin treasury firms. Earlier this month, Strive called on index provider MSCI to avoid excluding companies with large digital asset holdings from major equity benchmarks.  MSCI is reportedly consulting investors on whether firms with balance sheets dominated by crypto assets should remain eligible for inclusion. The company argued that such exclusions would limit investor choice and reshape capital flows across passive funds. The review could have broad implications for companies that hold bitcoin as a core treasury asset. This post Strive Lines Up $500 Million Stock Offering to Buy More Bitcoin first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.     ​Original and detailed news is here: Read More

Bitcoin Holds Near $92K as Selling Cools, but Demand Still Lags

ETF inflows have finally turned positive, but weak on-chain activity, defensive derivatives positioning, and negative spot CVD show a market stabilizing without the conviction needed for a sustained move higher.    ​Original and detailed news is here: Read More

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