Cautious Investment Recommended Amid Bitcoin Downtrend – Market Analysis and Outlook – 2025-11-05

Market Analysis

Bitcoin has recently struggled to surpass the key resistance level of 124,000, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty in the market. Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, prices have remained unstable, indicating that buyers are exercising caution. This hesitancy suggests the potential for increased downward pressure in the near term.

Over the past five days, Bitcoin’s price has experienced significant volatility, reflecting mixed signals in market sentiment and technical indicators. On October 31, the price reached 111,190 but momentum slowed thereafter, leading to a drop to 101,497 by November 4—a clear sign of weakening strength. The RSI (7) has fallen to 21.9, approaching oversold territory, which points to rising selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Money Flow Index (14) sits at 41.19 within a neutral range, hinting at some ongoing buying interest from investors.

Bollinger Bands analysis shows the price gravitating near the lower band, typically signaling a potential reversal or at least a temporary recovery. However, despite an increase in volume—peaking around 50,534 on November 4—there was no corresponding price surge, underscoring underlying market weakness. The Fear and Greed Index stands at 21, indicating a state of fear that could present a short-term buying opportunity. That said, any breakdown of key support levels might intensify selling pressure.

Moving averages further confirm the bearish trend. The 7- and 14-day Hull Moving Averages (HMA) have slipped below the current price, while the 21-, 30-, and 50-day HMAs are also turning downward. On November 4, the 7-day HMA was at 104,147, but the price closed lower at 101,497, reinforcing the downtrend. If the support zone between 101,420 and 100,119 breaks, the next significant support lies between 96,945 and 90,056, which could trigger further declines.

Overall, the current technical and sentiment indicators suggest Bitcoin remains under pressure, with a likelihood of further short-term price drops. Yet, given the RSI and Fear and Greed Index signaling oversold conditions, a rebound might be possible. Investors are advised to avoid hasty decisions and closely monitor key support and resistance levels to make informed choices. While Fed rate cuts and other macroeconomic factors could have a positive impact over the long term, exercising caution is the best strategy in the present market environment.

Data Summary

• 1. Time:
  2025-11-05 – 00:00 UTC
• 2. Prices:
  Open: 106583.05000000
  High: 107299.00000000
  Low: 98944.36000000
  Close: 101497.22000000
• 8. Supports:
  S1: 101420.00000000 – 100119.04000000
  S2: 96945.63000000 – 90056.17000000
  S3: 89855.99000000 – 87325.59000000
  S4: 84474.7 – 83949.5
• 9. Resistances:
  R1: 104103.72000000 – 105500.00000000
  R2: 105857.99000000 – 106457.44000000
  R3: 108816.33000000 – 109450.07000000
  R4: 116789 – 117544
• 10. Psychological Support:
  100000.00000000
• 11. Psychological Resistance:
  110000.00000000
• 3. Last 5 days’ closing prices:
  2025-10-31: 109608.01000000
  2025-11-01: 110098.10000000
  2025-11-02: 110540.68000000
  2025-11-03: 106583.04000000
  2025-11-04: 101497.22000000
• 4. Volume:
  BTC: 50534.8738
  USD: $5197697635.2124
• 5. Number of trades:
  9099609
• 6. Indicators:
  RSI: 21.9000
  MFI: 41.1900
  BB Upper: 115083.70000000
  BB Lower: 103828.71000000
• 7. Moving Averages:
  SMA:
  7=108095.89000000
  14=109895.25000000
  21=109456.20000000
  30=111870.40000000
  50=113365.17000000
  100=113908.83000000
  200=108907.61000000

  EMA:

  7=107487.71000000
  14=109113.14000000
  21=110076.50000000
  30=110944.19000000
  50=111980.43000000
  100=111899.64000000
  200=107810.16000000

  HMA:

  7=104147.80000000
  14=106857.91000000
  21=109022.45000000
  30=109466.44000000
  50=108102.53000000
  100=112078.71000000
  200=114784.08000000
• 12. Funding Rate:
  0.0063%
• 13. Open Interest:
  77417.8460
• 14. Fear & Greed Index:
  21 (Extreme Fear)

Disclaimer: This market analysis is generated by AI based on historical BTC data and sentiment indicators. Use it as a reference, not financial advice.