Bitcoin Shows Signs of Cautious Weakness: A Critical Alert for Investors – 2025-11-02

Market Analysis

Bitcoin recently approached a peak of 124,000 but failed to maintain this level, leading to a notable sense of uncertainty in the market. Despite the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, Bitcoin has not demonstrated the momentum typically required to sustain a strong upward trend. This lack of robust movement signals caution for investors navigating the current environment.

Over the past five days, Bitcoin’s price has shown a clear downward trajectory, declining from 114,107 to 110,098. The 7-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped from 55.22 to 45.98, reflecting weakening market strength. Conversely, the 14-day Money Flow Index (MFI) rose from 54.14 to 65.89, indicating some signs of liquidity and buying interest, though this is not yet firmly established. The Fear & Greed Index fell sharply from 50 to 33, highlighting growing apprehension among traders, which could exert additional downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

Looking at the Bollinger Bands, the price has largely hovered near the middle band around 110,624. Bitcoin has remained above the lower band at 105,451, but its distance from the upper band at 115,796 suggests limited upside potential at present. The Hull Moving Averages (HMA) present a somewhat complex picture: the 7-day HMA is steadily declining and price is close to or below this level, while the 14- and 21-day HMAs appear more stable but still show a slight downward bias. This pattern points to short-term weakness.

Key support levels are found between 108,377 and 107,172 (S1), which could prove significant given recent price declines. Should this range break, the next major support zone lies between 105,681 and 104,872 (S2), aiming to prevent further drops. On the upside, resistance is noted between 111,696 and 112,371 (R1), with a psychological barrier around 120,000 that may constrain gains. Overall, Bitcoin faces short-term pressure, though the medium- and long-term outlooks are not decisively negative.

Market sentiment and news flow further underline this cautious stance. Despite the Fed’s rate cuts, investor confidence remains fragile. The past five days have been marked by cautious and uncertain news coverage, limiting bullish momentum. Although slight increases in financing rates and open interest suggest some engagement, the decline in the Fear & Greed Index points to investors’ reluctance to take on significant risk. Therefore, while short-term pressure on Bitcoin’s price is likely, maintaining support levels could open the door for a medium-term recovery.

In summary, Bitcoin’s current position calls for a balanced yet vigilant approach. Indicators such as RSI and MFI signal moderate activity, and the rising fear evident in the Fear & Greed Index suggests the market is not fully prepared for a strong rally. However, the absence of clear negative signals from moving averages and the strength of support levels reduce the risk of a sudden sharp decline. Investors are advised to avoid hasty decisions and await clearer market signals before making significant moves.

Data Summary

• 1. Time:
  2025-11-02 – 00:00 UTC
• 2. Prices:
  Open: 109608.01000000
  High: 110564.49000000
  Low: 109394.81000000
  Close: 110098.10000000
• 8. Supports:
  S1: 108377.40000000 – 107172.52000000
  S2: 105681.14000000 – 104872.50000000
  S3: 101508.68000000 – 99950.77000000
  S4: 94881.5 – 92206
• 9. Resistances:
  R1: 111696.21000000 – 112371.00000000
  R2: 116788.96000000 – 117543.75000000
  R3: 119177.56000000 – 121022.07000000
• 10. Psychological Support:
  110000.00000000
• 11. Psychological Resistance:
  120000.00000000
• 3. Last 5 days’ closing prices:
  2025-10-28: 112898.45000000
  2025-10-29: 110021.29000000
  2025-10-30: 108322.88000000
  2025-10-31: 109608.01000000
  2025-11-01: 110098.10000000
• 4. Volume:
  BTC: 7378.5043
  USD: $812389216.4347
• 5. Number of trades:
  1994214
• 6. Indicators:
  RSI: 45.9800
  MFI: 65.8900
  BB Upper: 115796.94000000
  BB Lower: 105451.85000000
• 7. Moving Averages:
  SMA:
  7=111373.68000000
  14=110527.51000000
  21=110624.39000000
  30=113519.88000000
  50=113937.06000000
  100=114247.47000000
  200=108556.05000000

  EMA:

  7=110422.04000000
  14=110902.58000000
  21=111452.46000000
  30=112038.01000000
  50=112732.01000000
  100=112255.39000000
  200=107859.91000000

  HMA:

  7=108481.90000000
  14=110575.19000000
  21=111581.26000000
  30=109871.14000000
  50=109042.39000000
  100=112837.10000000
  200=115374.53000000
• 12. Funding Rate:
  0.0098%
• 13. Open Interest:
  78358.9960
• 14. Fear & Greed Index:
  33 (Fear)

Disclaimer: This market analysis is generated by AI based on historical BTC data and sentiment indicators. Use it as a reference, not financial advice.