Bitcoin Shows Signs of Cautious Weakness as Investor Sentiment Turns Risk-Averse – Market Analysis – 2025-11-01

Market Analysis

Bitcoin has recently struggled to surpass the significant milestone of 124,000, leading to increased uncertainty in market movements. Despite the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, Bitcoin’s price has shown relative stability. However, technical indicators and prevailing market sentiment suggest a cautious approach is warranted.

Over the past five days, Bitcoin’s price has experienced a noticeable decline, beginning around 114,559 and closing at 109,608 on the final day. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped from 62 to 43, settling in a neutral zone that signals weakening market momentum. Meanwhile, the Money Flow Index (MFI) has increased from 51 to 66, indicating a moderate level of buying interest among investors but also reflecting a complex liquidity situation. The Fear & Greed Index has sharply decreased from 51 to 29, highlighting a growing atmosphere of fear and heightened caution among market participants.

Looking at the Bollinger Bands, Bitcoin’s price recently slipped below the midline at 110,650 and moved closer to the lower band near 105,483, pointing to increased volatility and a weakening trend. While approaching the lower band often suggests an oversold condition, current RSI and MFI readings do not fully confirm this. Examining the moving averages, the 7-day Hull Moving Average (HMA) stands at 107,798, close to the current price, whereas the 14-day and 21-day HMAs are positioned higher, at 111,548 and 111,950 respectively, indicating short- to mid-term bearishness. Longer-term moving averages for 50, 100, and 200 days also remain above the price, suggesting resistance in the broader trend.

On the support front, the nearest range lies between 108,377 and 107,172, which could play a crucial role amid the ongoing weakness. Should this zone fail, subsequent support levels are found between 105,681 and 104,872, followed by 101,508 to 99,950, offering possible floors to limit further declines. Resistance levels are observed at 111,696 to 112,371 (R1), 114,271 to 115,127 (R2), and 119,177 to 121,022 (R3). The psychological level of 110,000 remains particularly significant, as the price has been hovering around it recently; a decisive move above or below this threshold could clarify the market’s direction.

From a broader perspective, S&P Global Ratings’ decision to grant a credit rating to Strategy Inc backed by Bitcoin marks a positive development, reinforcing Bitcoin’s growing relevance in corporate finance. Nonetheless, ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties—such as the conflict in Ukraine and political shifts in the U.S.—are keeping investors cautious. Despite the Fed’s interest rate reductions, the anticipated surge in market activity has not materialized, likely due to technical pressures and an overall atmosphere of fear. The spike in trading volume and activity on October 30th suggests that some investors are actively adjusting or closing substantial positions.

Declining financing rates and open interest further underscore market fragility, as investors appear reluctant to take on additional risk. Coupled with the downturn in the Fear & Greed Index, these factors reflect short-term selling pressure. Still, Bitcoin’s price remains well above the psychological support of 100,000, which could help prevent a steeper drop. Additionally, rising institutional interest and corporate investments bode well for the market’s long-term stability.

In summary, Bitcoin’s current state calls for a prudent and measured outlook both technically and sentimentally. The short-term trend leans bearish with downside pressure, but robust support levels may help contain losses. Should the price manage to break above the 110,000 mark and the R1 resistance zone, a moderate recovery could be expected; otherwise, further downward movement remains a risk. Investors are advised to closely monitor Federal Reserve policies, global political developments, and technical signals to make well-informed decisions.

Data Summary

• 1. Time:
  2025-11-01 – 00:00 UTC
• 2. Prices:
  Open: 108322.87000000
  High: 111190.00000000
  Low: 108275.28000000
  Close: 109608.01000000
• 8. Supports:
  S1: 108377.40000000 – 107172.52000000
  S2: 105681.14000000 – 104872.50000000
  S3: 101508.68000000 – 99950.77000000
  S4: 94536.1 – 87325.6
• 9. Resistances:
  R1: 111696.21000000 – 112371.00000000
  R2: 114271.24000000 – 115127.81000000
  R3: 119177.56000000 – 121022.07000000
  R4: 124659 – 126200
• 10. Psychological Support:
  100000.00000000
• 11. Psychological Resistance:
  110000.00000000
• 3. Last 5 days’ closing prices:
  2025-10-27: 114107.65000000
  2025-10-28: 112898.45000000
  2025-10-29: 110021.29000000
  2025-10-30: 108322.88000000
  2025-10-31: 109608.01000000
• 4. Volume:
  BTC: 21518.2044
  USD: $2361590437.9414
• 5. Number of trades:
  5256872
• 6. Indicators:
  RSI: 43.3500
  MFI: 66.3200
  BB Upper: 115817.60000000
  BB Lower: 105483.22000000
• 7. Moving Averages:
  SMA:
  7=111594.85000000
  14=110319.43000000
  21=110650.41000000
  30=113867.59000000
  50=114044.75000000
  100=114325.74000000
  200=108418.63000000

  EMA:

  7=110530.02000000
  14=111026.34000000
  21=111587.89000000
  30=112171.80000000
  50=112839.52000000
  100=112298.98000000
  200=107837.41000000

  HMA:

  7=107798.50000000
  14=111548.55000000
  21=111950.49000000
  30=109670.46000000
  50=109321.50000000
  100=113020.04000000
  200=115557.09000000
• 12. Funding Rate:
  0.01%
• 13. Open Interest:
  77900.5120
• 14. Fear & Greed Index:
  29 (Fear)

Disclaimer: This market analysis is generated by AI based on historical BTC data and sentiment indicators. Use it as a reference, not financial advice.