Bitcoin Shows Steady Consolidation as It Prepares for the Next Major Move – Market Analysis – 2025-07-06

Market Analysis

**Introduction**

In recent days, Bitcoin has once again attempted to break through the liquidity cluster around 113,000 but has been unable to sustain a move above this level. This has resulted in a cautious and uncertain sentiment prevailing across the market. Currently, the price is stabilizing near 108,000 but showing a tendency to drift towards 103,000. In light of these developments, we present a detailed analysis of the market dynamics today.

**Analysis**

Over the past five days, Bitcoin’s price action has exhibited a complex yet cautious pattern. On July 1st, the price opened at 107,146 and gradually declined during the day, reaching a low of 105,250 before closing at 105,681. This downward pressure prompted some market concern. The 7-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 45.7, below the neutral 50 mark and trending downward, indicating mild weakness but not a strong bearish phase. Similarly, the 14-day Money Flow Index (MFI) was at 42.32, suggesting weakening liquidity. Trading volume was moderate at 10,505, with approximately 2,013,289 trades executed, pointing to a slight decrease in market activity. The Fear & Greed Index was at 64, reflecting moderate greed, yet overall market uncertainty remained evident.

On July 2nd and 3rd, Bitcoin’s price showed marked improvement, advancing from 105,681 to 109,584. Correspondingly, the RSI climbed from 63.33 to 66.29, signaling robust buying momentum. The MFI also rose, from 50.77 to 56.06, reflecting enhanced liquidity and growing investor interest. Trading volume and the number of trades increased significantly to 17,691 and 2,568,944 respectively, indicating heightened market activity. The Fear & Greed Index strengthened from 63 to 73, denoting rising investor confidence. However, on July 4th, the price experienced a slight pullback, closing at 107,984. The RSI dropped to 55.01 while the MFI held steady at 57.24. Both volume and trade count declined, likely reflecting profit-taking and caution in some segments of the market.

On July 5th, Bitcoin traded within a stable but narrow range, opening at 107,984 and closing marginally higher at 108,198. The RSI was measured at 56.17 and the MFI at 59.36, suggesting moderate strength and improved liquidity. However, volume and trade count decreased sharply to 3,736 and 710,020 respectively, pointing to a slowdown in market participation. The Fear & Greed Index remained at 67, still indicating greed but not at an extreme level. Bollinger Bands analysis shows the price hovering near the midline with slight band contraction, which could precede a significant price move in the near term.

Looking at moving averages, particularly the Hull Moving Average (HMA), the levels on July 4th and 5th were close to 108,794 and 108,672 respectively, with the price closing just below or near these values. This suggests a weak but positive trend, albeit with limited momentum. A close above the HMA accompanied by an upward sloping HMA line would imply a stronger uptrend, but the current scenario points to moderate bullishness. Key support zones to monitor are S1 (105,681–104,872) and S2 (101,508–99,950). Should the price fall below S1, S2 may provide a stronger support level. On the resistance side, the range between 109,434 and 110,797, along with the psychological barrier at 110,000, are critical levels that could cap upside moves.

On the macro front, the U.S. Senate recently approved “The One Big Beautiful Act,” which notably excludes significant tax reforms related to cryptocurrencies. This outcome has led to some disappointment, especially among investors hoping for tax relief on smaller trades. Nevertheless, institutional investment continues to grow, as public companies increased Bitcoin purchases by 18% in Q2 2025, signaling strong market fundamentals. Additionally, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks about stable interest rates provided some market support, although recent employment data have tempered expectations for rate cuts, potentially exerting downward pressure on prices. Moreover, a modest decline in Bitcoin futures open interest and volume points to increasing caution among investors.

In summary, Bitcoin’s price is navigating a complex and cautious environment where breaking above the 113,000 resistance remains a significant challenge. While institutional interest and positive news provide supportive undercurrents, the absence of tax reforms and uncertainties around interest rates are acting as headwinds. RSI and MFI metrics indicate moderate strength, but declining volume and trade counts reveal subdued investor enthusiasm. A decisive close above the psychological 110,000 level could pave the way for further gains; otherwise, support zones between 105,000 and 103,000 may be tested. The prevailing greed reflected in the Fear & Greed Index suggests potential volatility in the short term. Investors are advised to proceed with caution and closely monitor evolving market conditions.

Data Summary

• 1. Time:
  2025-07-06 – 00:00 UTC
• 2. Prices:
  Open: 107984.25000000
  High: 108420.56000000
  Low: 107756.31000000
  Close: 108198.12000000
• 3. Last 5 days’ closing prices:
  2025-07-01: 105681.14000000
  2025-07-02: 108849.60000000
  2025-07-03: 109584.78000000
  2025-07-04: 107984.24000000
  2025-07-05: 108198.12000000
• 4. Volume:
  BTC: 3736.9757
  USD: $403928702.1967
• 5. Number of trades:
  710020
• 6. Indicators:
  RSI: 56.1700
  MFI: 59.3600
  BB Upper: 110404.12000000
  BB Lower: 101854.66000000
  MACD: 854.47000000
  Signal: 621.06000000
  Histogram: 233.42000000
• 7. Moving Averages:
  SMA:
  7=107971.62000000
  14=106915.30000000
  21=106129.39000000
  30=106354.24000000
  50=106429.23000000
  100=98523.22000000
  200=96369.36000000

  EMA:

  7=107913.66000000
  14=107246.21000000
  21=106820.19000000
  30=106320.10000000
  50=104829.87000000
  100=101062.14000000
  200=95051.54000000

  HMA:

  7=108794.32000000
  14=108672.61000000
  21=108981.90000000
  30=107927.82000000
  50=106488.77000000
  100=109389.72000000
  200=107745.15000000
• 8. Supports:
  S1: 105681.14000000 – 104872.50000000
  S2: 101508.68000000 – 99950.77000000
  S3: 96945.63000000 – 90056.17000000
  S4: 87325.6 – 86310
• 9. Resistances:
  R1: 109434.79000000 – 110797.38000000
• 10. Psychological Support:
  100000.00000000
• 11. Psychological Resistance:
  110000.00000000
• 12. Funding Rate:
  0.004% (Technically Positive)
• 13. Open Interest:
  79507.8620
• 14. Fear & Greed Index:
  67 (Greed)

Disclaimer: This market analysis is generated by AI based on historical BTC data and sentiment indicators. Use it as a reference, not financial advice.