So far in 2024, the Ethereum price performance has fallen short of market expectations. Instead of rallying alongside Bitcoin to new all-time highs as expected, it stalled and failed to claim $4,000 even at the height of its rally. Now, with the third quarter in full gear, the Ethereum price may still be far from any new all-time highs, given that this has historically being the worst quarter for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
How Ethereum Fares In 3rd Quarters
The third quarter of the year, consisting of the months of July, August, and September, have always been rather bearish for the Ethereum price. We see this from data presented on the Coinglass website, which tracks the monthly returns for the altcoin since its launch in 2016.
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While the average return of most other months has been on the rather high side, these three months record some of the lowest figures, with more red months compared to green months completed in the third quarter over the years.
To put this in perspective, in its nine years, the month of July has ended in the green only 3 times, with 6 negative months. August has also followed the same trend, with six negative months and 3 green months. September, in eight years so far, has come out in the red 5 times compared to only 3 times in the green. As a result, average monthly returns for these months are +5.51%, +6.98%, and -7.67%. Then, the median returns all came out in the negative across the board.
These performances shows that the 3rd quarter of the year have always been the most bearish. In contrast, Ethereum has recorded its best returns in the first quarter of the year, followed closely by the second quarter. Therefore, as the year draws to a close, the more bearish the Ethereum price gets.
What To Expect From Here
Going by the historical data and assuming the Ethereum price maintains this trend, then the altcoin may not see any significant recovery from here going toward the end of the year. The data suggests that the month of September could turn out even worse with more losses.
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However, going into the last quarter of the year could bring some relief for investors as prices could pick up again. But for the real gains, that could be months away until the first quarter of 2025, when the Ethereum price has been known to notch its best returns.
Additionally, if this pattern holds, then the Ethereum price could reach a new all-time high by the second quarter of 2025. This would put it above $5,000, signaling a 2x rise from here.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com